ISSUE Nº 1 · THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2026
Morning. Texas took a beating Tuesday night — 4-inch hail, a tornado outside Houston, whole towns underwater. If you're anywhere near it, the inspection calls are writing themselves this week. Here's everything else that moved.
📸 SCREENSHOT THIS: 3 Numbers to Know This Week
4.25 — Inches. The largest hailstone reported in Texas on Tuesday. Grapefruit territory.
23.4% — How much steel mill products are up year-over-year. Your spring bids didn't account for this.
3.1% — Construction unemployment in August. Your crew has options. Act like it.
Send this to your group chat. That's what it's for.
⚡ The News Flash
Texas took a beating Tuesday night. More than 90 storm reports across the state, hail as large as 4.25 inches, and an EF-1 tornado (90 mph winds) struck Katy, outside Houston, early Wednesday. A disaster declaration went out for Jasper County, where Kirbyville "remains under water" with crews pulling people from cars and homes. Severe risk continues today for the Ohio Valley, the Southeast, and northern Florida — lower than Wednesday's threat, but all hazards are still possible. (NBC News via Inland News Today, Sept 16)
Our take: The inspection window after an event like this is about two weeks. Texas and Louisiana crews should already be knocking — and documenting everything, because adjusters are about to be swamped.
QXO–TopBuild is done. The $17 billion deal actually closed July 1 — not "expected," closed. The combined company is now #1 in insulation, #2 in roofing, and #1 in waterproofing, targeting $300M+ in annual synergies by 2030. The market's less sure: QXO stock fell 20%+ in July on debt-load worries. (Business Wire, June 30; Motley Fool, Aug 9)
Our take: The distribution map already changed. If you're an independent distributor or a contractor who buys from one, figure out where you sit in the new pecking order before they figure it out for you.
Material prices jumped again. Construction input prices rose 1.2% in August alone and sit 8.9% above last year. Steel mill products are up 23.4% year-over-year, diesel an absurd 77.8%. ABC's chief economist Anirban Basu warns margin pressure ahead, pointing at the Canada trade war and oil back above $100 a barrel. (Construction Dive, Sept 11)
Our take: If you're still bidding at spring prices, you're working for free. Reprice your quotes this week — every week you wait is margin you don't get back.
📸 SCREENSHOT THIS: Where Your Costs Moved
Input | Move |
|---|---|
Construction inputs (Aug) | +1.2% month, +8.9% year |
Steel mill products | +23.4% year-over-year |
Diesel | +77.8% year-over-year |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics PPI (August), via Construction Dive, Sept 11. Tape this to your estimator's monitor.
✂️ COPY/PASTE: The Price-Increase Email
Steal this. Fill in the brackets. Send it today.
Subject: Update to your project quote
Hi [Name],
Material costs have moved a lot since we quoted your project — steel roofing products are up 23% over last year, and our overall input costs are up nearly 9%.
To deliver the quality we promised, I need to update your quote to $[X], good through [date]. A signed agreement and deposit by [date] locks in today's pricing.
Happy to walk through the numbers line by line.
[Your name] | [Company] | [Phone]
📌 More to Know
ABC Supply changes the guard. Keith Rozolis retires December 31; president and COO Mike Jost takes over as CEO January 1. Rozolis stays on as an advisor and board member. Watch what Jost signals in his first 90 days — branch priorities and contractor programs can shift fast under new leadership. (Business Wire, Sept 9)
State Farm's hail-claim files are going public in Oklahoma. A judge lifted the protective order on documents about the insurer's wind and hail claims practices. State Farm says it's paid $1B+ to Oklahoma customers for wind and hail damage over two years — and the state's insurance commissioner says his department has been independently investigating industry claims practices for years. (NRCA, Sept 10)
The Atlantic is eerily quiet. Still no hurricane in 2026 — the latest first-hurricane date of the satellite era, thanks to El Niño. But AccuWeather is watching the northern Gulf late this week for possible tropical development near the coast. (Fox Weather, Sept 11; Naples Daily News, Sept 16)
Sell-side backdrop: no new roofing deals broke in the first half of September, but 15+ PE roll-up platforms are actively buying in 2026. Current multiples run roughly 4–6x EBITDA for owner-operator commercial shops, 6–8x for multi-state regionals, and 8–12x+ for premium platforms. (CT Acquisitions tracker, updated Aug 22)
NRCA endorsed Mike Rogers for the Michigan Senate seat. (NRCA, Sept 14)
GAF's Roof of the Year contest is taking submissions through October 16 from GAF-certified contractors — free marketing if you've got a photogenic job. (GAF)
🔧 The Feature: Nobody's coming to save your crew
The numbers keep getting worse, and they're not mysterious anymore.
Construction added 22,000 jobs in August — the sixth straight monthly gain — while construction unemployment fell to 3.1%. Job openings hit 326,000 in July, the highest in nearly two years. (NRCA, Sept 8; NRCA, Sept 3)
Then the AGC/NCCER workforce survey landed: about a third of firms say immigration enforcement is affecting labor availability. 88% say craft openings are as hard or harder to fill than last year. Half say the candidates they do get lack the skills, certificates, or licenses. And 42% of firms report project delays caused by worker shortages. (NRCA, Sept 8; Carolinas AGC via PR Newswire, Sept 10)
Here's the part nobody puts in the press release: data-center construction is poaching your people. More than a third of firms that did data-center work call labor availability their single biggest challenge. The hyperscalers pay more, the work is indoors, and your best foreman just got a call.
So what's the move? The contractors winning on staffing aren't finding better people — they're keeping the ones they have. In a 3.1%-unemployment market, your crew has options, and the shops holding onto theirs are doing three boring things well: pay bumps that land before the competitor's offer, a visible path from laborer to crew lead, and materials staged before the crew arrives on day one. Nobody quits a shop where the truck is loaded and the paycheck grew.
Retention is the hiring strategy. Everything else is a job posting.
🧰 Around the Trade
An AI CRM built by a roofer, for roofers. Roof Flow Pro launched out of Ohio — lead and job management, estimating, e-signatures, scheduling, photo analysis for roof damage, storm tracking, and an "Instant Roof Estimator" website widget. Free 30-day trial. The announcement reads like a company release, so treat the feature list as their claims — make them demo it on your roofs before you sign. (Roofing Contractor, Sept 14)
QuoteIQ launched what it calls the first native MCP connector for a home-service CRM — query your CRM through an AI assistant. They claim 40,000+ home and field-service pros on the platform. (ABNewswire)
JobNimbus wired ReferPro referral leads straight into its job board — no manual re-entry. Small integration, real hours saved. (EIN Presswire, Sept 9)
Google yourself. Seriously. A St. Louis contractor found a fake website — allegedly AI-built — copying their testimonials, layout, BBB rating, and Owens Corning Preferred status to siphon leads. It came down after a hosting complaint. Set a Google Alert for your company name; it takes 90 seconds. (NRCA, Aug 27)
NAHB is pushing to expand the H-2B guest-worker program, currently capped at 66,000 visas a year — worth watching if the labor numbers above hit close to home. (HousingWire)
🍻 Tailgate Talk
No hurricane has formed in the Atlantic yet this year — the latest start of the satellite era. Mother Nature is officially running behind schedule. Somewhere on the Gulf Coast, a roofer just knocked on wood.
Know a roofer who'd read this? Forward it — that's how we grow.
— The Tear-Off team